Strategy, pricing and investment decisions.

Phare Consulting Group reviews the commercial assumptions behind a business plan: market demand, customer economics, and funding requirements. The review sets out the choices available.

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Glass-lined corridor between navy walls in a commercial interior

The economics behind a growth plan

A growth forecast depends on reaching customers at a price that covers the cost of serving them. The review looks at the buyer, the route to market, and the operating requirements behind that forecast.

For an existing business, invoice lines and commercial agreements show what customers pay, while operating records explain the resources their orders consume. That comparison can inform a pricing change, a different service offer, or the next investment.

Which decision is waiting on the numbers?

Choose the issue you are examining to see the relevant service, its scope and the material it produces.

Find the service by the decision

Revenue forecasts depend on market-share or pricing assumptions that have not been tested.

Corporate strategy review

Review the market, revenue, and investment assumptions behind a business plan.

What comes out of it

  • An assessment of the current plan and its main assumptions
  • A comparison of strategic alternatives using consistent criteria
  • Recommendations for projects to continue, change, defer or stop

How the work proceeds

  1. Set the baseline
  2. Test the alternatives
  3. Revise the plan
See corporate strategy review

Market estimates include buyers the proposed offer cannot realistically serve.

Market entry and adjacency analysis

Assess demand, routes to customers, and entry costs for a new market or adjacent offer.

What comes out of it

  • A defined target segment and addressable-market assessment
  • Competitor, customer and channel analysis with source notes
  • A comparison of entry options, capabilities and investment requirements

How the work proceeds

  1. Define the opportunity
  2. Investigate demand and access
  3. Estimate the economics
  4. Set the entry conditions
See market entry and adjacency analysis

A process passes through several functions with unclear accountability.

Operating-model design

Design the responsibilities and services needed to deliver a commercial plan.

What comes out of it

  • A current-state map of activities, responsibilities and decision points
  • Operating-model options and the reasons for the recommended design
  • Defined functional and business-unit responsibilities

How the work proceeds

  1. Follow the work
  2. Develop the model
  3. Plan the transition
See operating-model design

Investment proposals use inconsistent cash-flow or cost assumptions.

Capital and portfolio allocation

Compare investment choices by cash requirements, commercial position, and effects on the remaining portfolio.

What comes out of it

  • Comparable business-unit and project assessments
  • Cash-flow, funding and sensitivity analysis
  • A view of shared costs and dependencies affecting the comparison

How the work proceeds

  1. Put the proposals on one basis
  2. Compare allocation choices
  3. Prepare the recommendation
See capital and portfolio allocation

Discounts, rebates and service commitments are recorded in different systems.

Pricing and commercial terms

Reconcile prices and commercial terms to the revenue and contribution they leave.

What comes out of it

  • Price waterfalls reconciled to the revenue baseline
  • Analysis of discounts, rebates and other commercial terms
  • Customer, product and channel comparisons

How the work proceeds

  1. Reconstruct realized price
  2. Explain the variation
  3. Set commercial rules
See pricing and commercial terms

Reported margin movements have several competing explanations.

Cost and margin improvement

Develop cost and margin actions with a reconciled baseline, operating requirements, and financial measures.

What comes out of it

  • A reconciled view of margin and cost drivers
  • An initiative register with scope, dependencies and implementation requirements
  • Financial definitions for recurring savings, one-time effects and costs

How the work proceeds

  1. Explain the margin movement
  2. Develop feasible actions
  3. Build the program
See cost and margin improvement

The acquisition case depends on an untested market or customer assumption.

Pre-transaction commercial review

Examine the market, customer, and revenue assumptions supporting an acquisition or investment.

What comes out of it

  • A commercial assessment of the target and its market
  • Analysis of revenue drivers, customer exposure and growth assumptions
  • A review of the proposed combination benefits and operating dependencies

How the work proceeds

  1. Set the diligence questions
  2. Check the evidence
  3. Report implications and gaps
See pre-transaction commercial review

The same question looks different by sector

The records and assumptions change with the business. Each industry page sets out the customer, cost and operating questions that matter there.

  • Financial services

    Commercial strategy, business-unit economics and operating arrangements for banks, insurers and other financial-services businesses.

    • Which customer and product segments contribute after servicing costs?
    • How does the business plan change under alternative rate and demand assumptions?
  • Industrial and manufacturing

    Product, customer and plant economics, pricing arrangements and operating choices for industrial businesses.

    • Which commercial terms account for the gap between list and realized prices?
    • How do small orders, specification changes and delivery requirements affect contribution?
  • Technology and software

    Market, pricing and operating analysis for software and technology-enabled businesses.

    • Do revenue measures reconcile across sales, finance and customer records?
    • Which customers expand, contract or leave, and what does the cohort analysis show?
  • Healthcare and life sciences

    Business planning, commercial analysis and operating-model work for healthcare and life-sciences organizations.

    • Who purchases, pays for and uses the proposed service or product?
    • What capacity and staffing assumptions support the business plan?

How we approach an assignment

The scope determines the records and analysis needed. These stages explain how findings are prepared and reviewed. Read how a commercial review is prepared.

Settle the question

We agree the business or market under review, the decisions it will inform and the records available. A pricing review might use invoice lines and contract terms; a market-entry review needs a defined offer, buyer and geography.

The written agreement records the deliverables, fees, timing and access required. It also names the people responsible for reviewing factual findings and approving any extension to the work.

Gather the records

Send an outline first. We will agree how to exchange confidential records before asking for the underlying files.

  • The product, customer segment, market or transaction involved
  • The commercial decision and any fixed date for it
  • The reports, contracts or research already available
  • Access and confidentiality restrictions
Build the analysis file

A pricing finding may draw on an invoice, a rebate agreement and an estimate of delivery activity. The analysis file keeps those sources with the calculation for review. Interviews help explain the arrangements; where information cannot be reconciled or confirmed, the finding states the limitation.

  • Source records: The period, population and definitions used in invoices, management reports, contracts or published research.
  • Estimates: The method and assumptions used where the source does not supply a figure directly.
  • Open items: Missing or disputed information and the conclusions that could change when it becomes available.
Report and recommend

The final report explains why the recommended option follows from the analysis and what could change that conclusion. Costs, operating dependencies, and sensitivity to the main assumptions accompany the recommendation. Management decides whether to proceed. Further research or implementation support requires an agreed scope.

Follow the margin through an order.

The two orders below have the same invoiced revenue and product cost. Their rebates, delivery requirements, and handling costs leave different amounts to cover shared overhead.

Illustrative order comparison.

Order A contribution before shared overhead15

Product cost
58
Customer rebate
8
Delivery cost
12
Order handling
7
Illustrative comparison. Amounts are currency units per order, not client results. Read the calculation and change the terms.
View the full comparison and change the terms

Illustrative comparison. Amounts are currency units per order, not client results.

Two orders for the same product, each invoiced at 100.
Item and sourceOrder AOrder B
Invoiced revenueInvoice lines100100
Customer rebateRebate agreement−8−3
Delivery costFreight record−12−4
Direct product costProduct cost record−58−58
Order handlingActivity estimate−7−3
ContributionBefore shared overhead1532

The second order leaves 17 more units before shared overhead. Product cost is unchanged; rebates, delivery and handling account for the gap.

What this example leaves out

Returns, payment financing, tax and shared overhead are excluded. A real review defines each cost once, reconciles the records and tests estimates before drawing a conclusion.

Change the terms

Start from Order A and move a term. The invoice stays at 100 and product cost at 58. Illustrative only; no data leaves the page.

15left before shared overhead

For reference: Order A leaves 15 and Order B leaves 32.

Terms used in this comparison
Invoiced revenue
The amount billed on the invoice before any rebate or credit.
Pocket price
The price a customer effectively pays once rebates, credits and similar concessions are taken off the invoice price.
Cost to serve
The delivery, handling and support cost that an order or account creates.
Contribution
What an order leaves after the costs that change with it, before shared overhead.

Compare the terms on each order.

A proposed price increase needs to account for the rebate and delivery terms on each order. In this example, those terms explain much of the contribution gap. Any revision also needs a view of how the customers would respond and which costs would change with their orders.

Our pricing and commercial terms work reviews the agreement. Cost and margin improvement tests the resources used to serve the account.

For the records behind the calculation, read the price-waterfall analysis.

Scope a commercial review.

Tell us whether you are reviewing an existing offer or considering a new commitment. See how we define the review, or email Phare about the decision.